Principles of Risk Analysis

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Charles Yoe
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439857504
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 584
View: 420
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In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.

Primer on Risk Analysis

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Charles Yoe
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439857644
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 251
View: 8876
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In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a

A Study of Business Decisions Under Uncertainty

The Probability of the Improbable - With Examples from the Oil and Gas Exploration Industry
Author: Andreas Stark
Publisher: Universal-Publishers
ISBN: 1599423499
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 408
View: 5349
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This dissertation will discuss the uncertainty encountered in the daily operations of businesses. The concepts will be developed by first giving an overview of probability and statistics as used in our everyday activities, such as the basic principles of probability, univariate and multivariate statistics, data clustering and mapping, as well as time sequence and spectral analysis. The examples used will be from the oil and gas exploration industry because the risks taken in this industry are normally quite large and are ideal for showing the application of the various techniques for minimizing risk. Subsequently, the discussion will deal with basic risk analysis, spatial and time variations of risk, geotechnical risk analysis, risk aversion and how it is affected by personal biases, and how to use portfolios to hedge risk together with the application of real options. Next, fractal analysis and its application to economics and risk analysis will be examined, followed by some examples showing the change in the Value at Risk under Fractal Brownian Motions. Finally, a neural network application is shown whereby some of these risks and risk factors will be combined to forecast the best possible outcome given a certain knowledge base. The chapters will discuss: Basic probability techniques and uncertainty principles Analysis and diversification for exploration projects The value and risk of information in the decision process Simulation techniques and modeling of uncertainty Project valuation and project risk return Modeling risk propensity or preference analysis of exploration projects Application of fractals to risk analysis Simultaneous prediction of strategic risk and decision attributes using multivariate statistics and neural networks"

Trust as a Determinant of Consumer Behaviour Under Uncertainty

An Empirical Analysis of Consumers' Reactions to a Random External Shock in Europe
Author: Leef H. Dierks
Publisher: Cuvillier Verlag
ISBN: 3865376991
Category:
Page: 214
View: 7739
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Integrative Systems Approaches to Natural and Social Dynamics

Systems Sciences 2000
Author: Peter Murray Allen,M. Matthies,H. Malchow,J. Kriz
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540412922
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 593
View: 8085
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With contributions by numerous experts

Acting under Uncertainty

Multidisciplinary Conceptions
Author: George M. von Furstenberg
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401578737
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 486
View: 8025
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Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.

Decision Making

Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions
Author: David E. Bell,Howard Raiffa,Amos Tversky
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521368513
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 623
View: 4414
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A compilation of different approaches--normative, descriptive,and prescriptive--develops this integrated analysis of decision-making that emphasizes the contributions of various disciplinary interests.

Financial Economics


Author: Jürgen Eichberger,Ian R. Harper
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 9780198775409
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 260
View: 6868
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Financial Economics provides a comprehensive introduction to an exciting new field of economics for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate economists and finance specialists. It develops the main arguments in finance theory from an explicitly economic perspective. Economists can see how finance theory can be applied to economics, while finance specialists can appreciate the economic foundations of their favourite results in finance. The authors stress the theories of decision-making under uncertainty and of asymmetric information.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty


Author: Institute of Medicine,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Committee on Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309130344
Category: Political Science
Page: 280
View: 6996
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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

The Constitution of Risk


Author: Adrian Vermeule
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107043727
Category: Law
Page: 210
View: 7984
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The Constitution of Risk is the first book to combine constitutional theory with the theory of risk regulation. The book argues that constitutional rulemaking is best understood as a means of managing political risks. Constitutional law structures and regulates the risks that arise in and from political life, such as an executive coup or military putsch, political abuse of ideological or ethnic minorities, or corrupt self-dealing by officials. The book claims that the best way to manage political risks is an approach it calls "optimizing constitutionalism" - in contrast to the worst-case thinking that underpins "precautionary constitutionalism," a mainstay of liberal constitutional theory. Drawing on a broad range of disciplines such as decision theory, game theory, welfare economics, political science, and psychology, this book advocates constitutional rulemaking undertaken in a spirit of welfare maximization, and offers a corrective to the pervasive and frequently irrational attitude of distrust of official power that is so prominent in American constitutional history and discourse.

Principles of Management: An Analysis of Managerial Functions


Author: N.A
Publisher: N.A
ISBN: N.A
Category:
Page: N.A
View: 3194
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Principles of management

an analysis of managerial functions
Author: Harold Koontz,Cyril O'Donnell
Publisher: N.A
ISBN: N.A
Category: Business & Economics
Page: 748
View: 2202
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Computational Intelligence in Reliability Engineering

New Metaheuristics, Neural and Fuzzy Techniques in Reliability
Author: Gregory Levitin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540373713
Category: Mathematics
Page: 413
View: 3151
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This volume includes chapters presenting applications of different metaheuristics in reliability engineering, including ant colony optimization, great deluge algorithm, cross-entropy method and particle swarm optimization. It also presents chapters devoted to cellular automata and support vector machines, and applications of artificial neural networks, a powerful adaptive technique that can be used for learning, prediction and optimization. Several chapters describe aspects of imprecise reliability and applications of fuzzy and vague set theory.

Misconceptions of Risk


Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119964288
Category: Mathematics
Page: 248
View: 5369
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We all face risks in a variety of ways, as individuals, businesses and societies. The discipline of risk assessment and risk management is growing rapidly and there is an enormous drive for the implementation of risk assessment methods and risk management in organizations. There are great expectations that these tools provide suitable frameworks for obtaining high levels of performance and balance different concerns such as safety and costs. The analysis and management of risk are not straightforward. There are many challenges. The risk discipline is young and there area a number of ideas, perspectives and conceptions of risk out there. For example many analysts and researchers consider it appropriate to base their risk management policies on the use of expected values, which basically means that potential losses are multiplied with their associated consequences. However, the rationale for such a policy is questionable. A number of such common conceptions of risk are examined in the book, related to the risk concept, risk assessments, uncertainty analyses, risk perception, the precautionary principle, risk management and decision making under uncertainty. The Author discusses these concepts, their strenghts and weaknesses, and concludes that they are often better judged as misconceptions of risk than conceptions of risk. Key Features: Discusses common conceptions of risk with supporting examples. Provides recommendations and guidance to risk analysis and risk management. Relevant for all types of applications, including engineering and business. Presents the Author’s overall conclusions on the issues addressed throughout the book. All those working with risk-related problems need to understand the fundamental ideas and concepts of risk. Professionals in the field of risk, as well as researchers and graduate sutdents will benefit from this book. Policy makers and business people will also find this book of interest.

Principles of health risk assessment


Author: Paolo F. Ricci
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN: N.A
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 417
View: 9057
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Applied Data Analysis and Modeling for Energy Engineers and Scientists


Author: T. Agami Reddy
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781441996138
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 430
View: 5991
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Applied Data Analysis and Modeling for Energy Engineers and Scientists fills an identified gap in engineering and science education and practice for both students and practitioners. It demonstrates how to apply concepts and methods learned in disparate courses such as mathematical modeling, probability,statistics, experimental design, regression, model building, optimization, risk analysis and decision-making to actual engineering processes and systems. The text provides a formal structure that offers a basic, broad and unified perspective,while imparting the knowledge, skills and confidence to work in data analysis and modeling. This volume uses numerous solved examples, published case studies from the author’s own research, and well-conceived problems in order to enhance comprehension levels among readers and their understanding of the “processes”along with the tools.

Decision Theory

Principles and Approaches
Author: Giovanni Parmigiani,Lurdes Inoue
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047074667X
Category: Mathematics
Page: 402
View: 8604
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Decision theory provides a formal framework for making logical choices in the face of uncertainty. Given a set of alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets, decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice. This book presents an overview of the fundamental concepts and outcomes of rational decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the implications for statistical practice. The authors have developed a series of self contained chapters focusing on bridging the gaps between the different fields that have contributed to rational decision making and presenting ideas in a unified framework and notation while respecting and highlighting the different and sometimes conflicting perspectives. This book: Provides a rich collection of techniques and procedures. Discusses the foundational aspects and modern day practice. Links foundations to practical applications in biostatistics, computer science, engineering and economics. Presents different perspectives and controversies to encourage readers to form their own opinion of decision making and statistics. Decision Theory is fundamental to all scientific disciplines, including biostatistics, computer science, economics and engineering. Anyone interested in the whys and wherefores of statistical science will find much to enjoy in this book.

Deference in International Courts and Tribunals

Standard of Review and Margin of Appreciation
Author: Lukasz Gruszczynski,Wouter Werner
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191026506
Category: Law
Page: 400
View: 6975
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International courts and tribunals are often asked to review decisions originally made by domestic decision-makers. This can often be a source of tension, as the international courts and tribunals need to judge how far to defer to the original decisions of the national bodies. As international courts and tribunals have proliferated, different courts have applied differing levels of deference to those originial decisions, which can lead to a fragmentation in international law. International courts in such positions rely on two key doctrines: the standard of review and the margin of appreciation. The standard of review establishes the extent to which national decisions relating to factual, legal, or political issues arising in the case are re-examined in the international court. The margin of appreciation is the extent to which national legislative, executive, and judicial decision-makers are allowed to reflect diversity in their interpretation of human rights obligations. The book begins by providing an overview of the margin of appreciation and standard of review, recognising that while the margin of appreciation explicitly acknowledges the existence of such deference, the standard of review does not: it is rather a procedural mechanism. It looks in-depth at how the public policy exception has been assessed by the European Court of Justice and the WTO dispute settlement bodies. It examines how the European Court of Human Rights has taken an evidence-based approach towards the margin of appreciation, as well as how it has addressed issues of hate speech. The Inter-American system is also investigated, and it is established how far deference is possible within that legal organisation. Finally, the book studies how a range of other international courts, such as the International Criminal Court, and the Law of the Sea Tribunal, have approached these two core doctrines.

Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision-making practice


Author: Enrico Zio,Nicola Pedroni
Publisher: FonCSI
ISBN: N.A
Category: Technology & Engineering
Page: 39
View: 9468
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This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides : a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction ; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation ; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessement (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps ; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.

Intelligent Decision Making: An AI-Based Approach


Author: Gloria Phillips-Wren,Nikhil Ichalkaranje
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540768289
Category: Mathematics
Page: 410
View: 9918
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Intelligent Decision Support Systems have the potential to transform human decision making by combining research in artificial intelligence, information technology, and systems engineering. The field of intelligent decision making is expanding rapidly due, in part, to advances in artificial intelligence and network-centric environments that can deliver the technology. Communication and coordination between dispersed systems can deliver just-in-time information, real-time processing, collaborative environments, and globally up-to-date information to a human decision maker. At the same time, artificial intelligence techniques have demonstrated that they have matured sufficiently to provide computational assistance to humans in practical applications. This book includes contributions from leading researchers in the field beginning with the foundations of human decision making and the complexity of the human cognitive system. Researchers contrast human and artificial intelligence, survey computational intelligence, present pragmatic systems, and discuss future trends. This book will be an invaluable resource to anyone interested in the current state of knowledge and key research gaps in the rapidly developing field of intelligent decision support.