Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems

The purpose of this book is to raise awareness of the limitations, uncertainties and other issues inherent in probabilistic risk analysis procedures.

Author: M. Stewart

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9780412805707

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 274

View: 340

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Probabilistic risk and hazard assessments are applied to a wide range of engineering systems, mainly for regulatory reasons needed for development consent, system certification and occupational health and safety issues. The purpose of this book is to raise awareness of the limitations, uncertainties and other issues inherent in probabilistic risk analysis procedures. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Engineering Systems describes: the importance of probabilistic risk assessment in decision making, i.e. risk management; types of risk and probabilistic risk analysis procedures; data needed for the conduct of probabilistic risk analysis; and acceptable/tolerable risk and other risk acceptance criteria. In essence, the book provides a multi-disciplinary and integrated explanation of risk assessment procedures that will enable the non-specialist reader to gain valuable insights into the development of risk analysis procedures. Practising engineers and graduate engineering students across a range of disciplines will find this book immensely useful.
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Engineering Risk and Hazard Assessment

This volume will provide the reader not only with valuable conceptual and technical information but also with a better view of the field, its problems, accomplishments, and future potentials

Author: Abraham Kandel

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781351080163

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 146

View: 368

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The volumes deal with the newly emerging field ofRisk and Hazard Assessment and its application to science and engineering. These volumes deal with issues such as short-and long-term hazards, setting priorities in safety, fault analysis for process plants, hazard identification and safety assessment of human- robot systems, plant fault diagnoses expert systems, knowledge based diagnostic systems, fault tree analysis, modelling of computer security systems for risk and reliability analysis, risk analysis of fatigue failure, fault evaluation of complex system, probabilistic risk analysis, and expert systems for fault detection. This volume will provide the reader not only with valuable conceptual and technical information but also with a better view of the field, its problems, accomplishments, and future potentials
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Probabilistic Risk and Hazard Assessment

Highlights the multi-disciplinary nature of probabilistic risk and hazard assessment procedures. Topics covered include: Hazard scenario analyses (e.g.

Author: R.E. Melchers

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9054103493

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 264

View: 894

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Highlights the multi-disciplinary nature of probabilistic risk and hazard assessment procedures. Topics covered include: Hazard scenario analyses (e.g. HAZOP, FMEA); probabilistic risk assessments; consequence modelling; structural reliability; human error; uncertainty analyses; and risk assessment. Topics are related to the design, construction & operation of chemical & process plants; nuclear facilities; bridges & buildings; offshore structures & dams
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Engin Risk Hazard Assessment

This volume will provide the reader not only with valuable conceptual and technical information but also with a better view of the field, its problems, accomplishments, and future potentials

Author: Abraham Kandel

Publisher: CRC-Press

ISBN: 0849346576

Category: Science

Page: 144

View: 247

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The volumes deal with the newly emerging field of �Risk and Hazard Assessment� and its application to science and engineering. These volumes deal with issues such as short-and long-term hazards, setting priorities in safety, fault analysis for process plants, hazard identification and safety assessment of human- robot systems, plant fault diagnoses expert systems, knowledge based diagnostic systems, fault tree analysis, modelling of computer security systems for risk and reliability analysis, risk analysis of fatigue failure, fault evaluation of complex system, probabilistic risk analysis, and expert systems for fault detection. This volume will provide the reader not only with valuable conceptual and technical information but also with a better view of the field, its problems, accomplishments, and future potentials
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Engineering Risk and Hazard Assessment

This volume will provide the reader not only with valuable conceptual and technical information but also with a better view of the field, its problems, accomplishments, and future potentials

Author: Abraham Kandel

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781351080156

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 152

View: 745

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The volumes deal with the newly emerging field ofRisk and Hazard Assessment and its application to science and engineering. These volumes deal with issues such as short-and long-term hazards, setting priorities in safety, fault analysis for process plants, hazard identification and safety assessment of human- robot systems, plant fault diagnoses expert systems, knowledge based diagnostic systems, fault tree analysis, modelling of computer security systems for risk and reliability analysis, risk analysis of fatigue failure, fault evaluation of complex system, probabilistic risk analysis, and expert systems for fault detection. This volume will provide the reader not only with valuable conceptual and technical information but also with a better view of the field, its problems, accomplishments, and future potentials
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Probablistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists

Packed with real-world examples and practical mathematical and statistical methods for large, complex systems, this definitive text and sourcebook gives you the guidance you need for thorough and conclusive study.

Author: Hiromitsu Kumamoto

Publisher: Wiley-IEEE Press

ISBN: 0780360176

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 620

View: 574

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Electrical Engineering Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists Second Edition "State of the art in risk analysis...[this book] projects the technology into the next decade. Congratulations to the authors on a virtuoso performance." -Charles Donaghey, University of Houston "A very useful reference to the academic and government communities, and junior engineering staff within nuclear, chemical, transportation, aerospace, and other industries." -Yovan Lukic, Arizona Public Service Company As the demands of government agencies and insurance companies escalate, societal risk assessment and management become increasingly critical to the development and use of engineered systems in the full range of industrial installations. Packed with real-world examples and practical mathematical and statistical methods for large, complex systems, this definitive text and sourcebook gives you the guidance you need for thorough and conclusive study. You'll find new and updated coverage of all the key topics related to risk analysis: * Probabilistic nature of risk * Qualitative and quantitative risk assessments * System decomposition * Legal and regulatory risks * And much more! The authors also provide end-of-chapter problems and a course outline. Complete with a new, automated, fault tree synthesis method using semantic networks. Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists, Second Edition will be of value to anyone working with engineered systems. Also of Interest from IEEE Press... Successful Patents and Patenting for Engineers and Scientists edited by Michael A. Lechter, Esq. 1995 Softcover 432 pp IEEE Order No. PP4478 ISBN 0-7803-1086-1 Metric Units and Conversion Charts A Metrication Handbook for Engineers, Technologists, and Scientists Second Edition Theodore Wildi 1995 Softcover 144 pp IEEE Order No. PP4044 ISBN 0-7803-1050-0 The Probability Tutoring Book An Intuitive Course for Engineers and Scientists (And Everyone Else!) Carol Ash 1993 Softcover 480 pp IEEE Order No. PP2881 ISBN 0-7803-1051-9
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Risk Assessment and Management

This is a collection of papers presented at the 1985 annual meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis.

Author: Lester B. Lave

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9781475764437

Category: Medical

Page: 740

View: 852

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This is a collection of papers presented at the 1985 annual meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis. As always seems to occur at these meetings, the discussion was lively, the sessions were filled, and people complained about not being able to hear all the papers they wanted to because of concurrent sessions. If ever someone is in charge of a meeting, I wish them the good luck to have it be one for the Society for Risk Analysis. While I was responsible for the meeting, it could not have taken place without the efforts of the general chairman, Alan Moshissi. The program committee was chaired by Janice Longstreth, and included Lee Abramson and Vincent Covello. Together we assembled disparate papers into reasonably coherent sessions, prodded authors into getting us manuscrLpts on time, and dealt with all the last minute changes that are required for a major meeting. The Washington chapter of the Society for Risk Analysis hosted the meeting. Dr. Longstreth was president of the chapter during this fateful year and deserves a great deal of thanks for her organizational skills and efforts. Rick Cothern, Jerry Chandler, Kathleen Knox, Sue Perlin, and Paul Price played major roles in organ1z1ng the meeting and making it run smoothly. Special thanks go to Richard J. Burk, Jr. , Executive Secretary of the Society, and his staff for handling the logistics.
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Risk Assessment

The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants ...

Author: Marvin Rausand

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781118281109

Category: Mathematics

Page: 664

View: 777

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An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory andstate-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along withstandards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, andApplications serves as a comprehensive introduction to thetopic. The book serves as a practical guide to current riskanalysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility ofsudden, major accidents across various areas of practice frommachinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants andtransportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of eachmethod, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while alsoshedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantagesand disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides anoverview of risk assessment, the book is organized into twosections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts anddetails the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with thenecessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overallrisk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models andaccident causation offers readers new insights into how and whyaccidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefullydescribes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, includingpreliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and eventtree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-containeddescription as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets thatillustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areasin risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, humanerrors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertaintyand sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for furtherstudy of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main resultsfrom probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing ofkey terms used in risk assessment. A related website featuresproblems that allow readers to test their comprehension of thepresented material and supplemental slides to facilitate thelearning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on riskanalysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate andgraduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference forengineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use riskassessment techniques in their everyday work.
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Probabilistic Risk Analysis

A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.

Author: Lecturer in Mathematics Tim Bedford

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 0521773202

Category: Mathematics

Page: 393

View: 946

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Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.
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The System Safety Skeptic

The System Safety Skeptic describes critical aspects of the discipline of system safety, including: Safety planning Hazard identification Hazard risk assessment and associated risk decision making Risk reduction and hazard controls Risk ...

Author: Terry L. Hardy

Publisher: AuthorHouse

ISBN: 9781452083957

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 312

View: 884

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Advanced technologies and increasing automation have forever changed how systems work and how people interact with them. Transportation systems, energy extraction and production systems, medical devices, and manufacturing processes are increasingly complex. With the use of these complex systems comes increased potential for harm to humans, property, and the environment. System safety is a widely accepted management and engineering approach to analyze and address risks in these complex systems. When used correctly, system safety methods can provide tremendous benefits, focusing resources to reduce risk and improve safety. But poor system safety analyses can lead to overconfidence, and can result in a misunderstanding of the potential for harm. The System Safety Skeptic describes critical aspects of the discipline of system safety, including: Safety planning Hazard identification Hazard risk assessment and associated risk decision making Risk reduction and hazard controls Risk reduction verification Hazard tracking and anomaly reporting Safety management and culture Accidents in multiple industries and organizations are used to illustrate potential missteps in the system safety process, including: Failure to plan and implement systematic safety efforts, and failure to plan for emergencies Failure to accurately identify the hazards and what can go wrong Underestimating the chances that an accident could happen Underestimating the worst possible outcomes Overestimating the effectiveness of safeguards Failure to properly verify that safeguards actually work Failure to learn from the past Failure of the organization to adequately manage system safety efforts This book provides hundreds of lessons learned in safety management and engineering, drawing from examples from many industries as well as the author's years of experience in the field. These real-world lessons help foster a healthy skepticism toward safety analysis and management in order to prevent future accidents.
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Earthquakes Tsunamis and Nuclear Risks

This book covers seismic probabilistic risk assessment (S-PRA) and related studies which have become more important to increase the safety of nuclear facilities against earthquakes and tsunamis in the face of the many uncertainties after ...

Author: Katsuhiro Kamae

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9784431558224

Category: Nature

Page: 177

View: 944

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This book covers seismic probabilistic risk assessment (S-PRA) and related studies which have become more important to increase the safety of nuclear facilities against earthquakes and tsunamis in the face of the many uncertainties after the Fukushima accident. The topics are (1) Active faults and active tectonics important for seismic hazard assessment of nuclear facilities,(2) Seismic source modeling and simulation and modeling techniques indispensable for strong ground motion prediction, and (3) PRA with external hazard and risk communication. The Fukushima accident has showed us the limitations of the deterministic evaluation approach to external events (an earthquake and tsunami) in which there are many uncertainties. Furthermore, public anxiety regarding nuclear safety because of an unexpected threat caused by an earthquake or tsunami is growing. The current policy on the estimation of the design basis of ground motion as well as tsunami height still has not been improved following the Fukushima accident. In particular, the risk concept in a nuclear system regarding seismic motion and a tsunami beyond the design basis is indispensable. Therefore, research and development for PRA enhancing nuclear safety are being actively pursued not only in Japan but also worldwide. This book provides an opportunity for readers to consider the future direction of nuclear safety vis-à-vis natural disasters.
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Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision making practice

This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis.

Author: Enrico Zio

Publisher: FonCSI

ISBN:

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 39

View: 120

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This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides : a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction ; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation ; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessement (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps ; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.
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Natural Hazard Data

The purpose of this practical guide is to provide Asian Development Bank (ADB) project officers with a basic understanding of natural hazards, the nature and purpose of hazard mapping and disaster risk assessments, and the availability and ...

Author: Asian Development Bank

Publisher: Asian Development Bank

ISBN: 9789292610135

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 42

View: 932

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Asia and the Pacific faces significant exposure to every major type of geophysical and weather-related hazard, and the countries in the region consistently rank among the most at risk from the human and economic impacts of natural hazards. The purpose of this practical guide is to provide Asian Development Bank (ADB) project officers with a basic understanding of natural hazards, the nature and purpose of hazard mapping and disaster risk assessments, and the availability and sources of related data and information in taking disaster risk into account in project design. It aso provides guidance to ADB staff on the identification and application of data for use in integrating disaster risk considerations in country partnership strategies and individual projects.
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The use of field , zone , and network models for fire hazard assessment is ... Hazards ; Heat Transfer ; Probability Theory ; Risk 19890037474 Risk ...

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: NASA:31769000658735

Category: Reliability (Engineering)

Page: 51

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Contains references to documents in the NASA Scientific and Technical (STI) Database.
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Risk Assessment

The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management.

Author: Marvin Rausand

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9781119377221

Category: Mathematics

Page: 784

View: 358

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Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
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Space Systems Probabilistic Risk Assessment PRA

Probability calculations, Risk analysis, Hazards, Nuclear power, Space technology, Safety engineering, Management, Management techniques, Estimation, Risk assessment, Spacecraft, Space transport, Management operations

Author: British Standards Institute Staff

Publisher:

ISBN: 0580663825

Category:

Page: 28

View: 882

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Space technology, Risk analysis, Risk assessment, Safety engineering, Hazards, Estimation, Probability calculations, Management, Management techniques, Management operations, Spacecraft, Space transport, Nuclear power
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A Preliminary Study of the Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Techniques to High Energy Laser Safety

A deterministic approach to laser hazard assessment is used in most laser safety standards.

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: OCLC:227989636

Category:

Page: 34

View: 377

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A deterministic approach to laser hazard assessment is used in most laser safety standards. Personnel are protected from hazardous laser radiation by defining a space within which the direct, reflected, or scattered radiation during laser operation exceeds the safe Maximum Permissible Exposure level. Controlling access to this space insures safety. Although this approach has satisfied the commercial and industrial laser communities for many years, it may not be applicable to the high-power (up to megawatt) laser systems currently being developed by the U.S. Military. These systems will have extremely long laser hazard distances, and controlling access to this space will be unrealistic, especially when the likelihood of hazardous human exposure is low. For these situations, an alternate analytical approach that estimates both the level of risk and the degree of risk reduction achievable by controlling key contributors can be applied. Analytic risk assessment tools are finding increasing application in a wide variety of hazard assessments, in both industrial and commercial situations. These tools use scientific data, assumptions, and mathematical models to estimate the likelihood, frequency, and severity of harm to people exposed to the hazard. This report discusses the application of such tools to laser safety and considers the uncertainties associated with probability density functions applied to key factors such as atmospheric scintillation, reflected radiation, population distribution and ocular injury.
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Engineering Risk and Hazard Assessment

This volume will provide the reader not only with valuable conceptual and technical information but also with a better view of the field, its problems, accomplishments, and future potentials

Author: Abraham Kandel

Publisher:

ISBN: 1351071718

Category: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS

Page: 146

View: 485

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"The volumes deal with the newly emerging field of ?Risk and Hazard Assessment? and its application to science and engineering. These volumes deal with issues such as short-and long-term hazards, setting priorities in safety, fault analysis for process plants, hazard identification and safety assessment of human- robot systems, plant fault diagnoses expert systems, knowledge based diagnostic systems, fault tree analysis, modelling of computer security systems for risk and reliability analysis, risk analysis of fatigue failure, fault evaluation of complex system, probabilistic risk analysis, and expert systems for fault detection. This volume will provide the reader not only with valuable conceptual and technical information but also with a better view of the field, its problems, accomplishments, and future potentials"--Provided by publisher.
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Aviation System Risks and Safety

This book provides a solution to “rare event” problems without using the classical theory of reliability and theory of probability.

Author: Kuklev E.A.

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9789811381225

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 167

View: 714

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This book provides a solution to “rare event” problems without using the classical theory of reliability and theory of probability. This solution is based on the methodology of risk assessment as “measure of danger” (in keeping with the ICS RAS) and an expert approach to determining systems’ safety indications using Fuzzy Sets methods. Further, the book puts forward a new concept: “Reliability, Risks, and Safety” (RRS). The book’s main goal is to generalize present results and underscore the need to develop an alternative approach to safety level assessment and risk management for technical (aviation) systems in terms of Fuzzy Sets objects, in addition to traditional probabilistic safety analysis (PSA). The concept it proposes incorporates ICAO recommendations regarding proactive system control and the system’s responses to various internal and external disturbances.
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